Hastie, T.; Tibshirani, R.; Friedman, J.The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction. 2nd ed. Springer, 2009. Free at hastie.su.domains/ElemStatLearn.
James, G.; Witten, D.; Hastie, T.; Tibshirani, R.An Introduction to Statistical Learning with Applications in Python. Springer, 2023. Free at statlearning.com.
Bishop, C. M.Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning. Springer, 2006.
Murphy, K. P.Probabilistic Machine Learning: An Introduction. MIT Press, 2022. Free at probml.github.io/pml-book.
Gauss, C. F.Theoria motus corporum coelestium in sectionibus conicis solem ambientium. Perthes & Besser, 1809 — where Gauss states he had used least squares since 1795, opening the priority dispute with Legendre. Full text (archive.org)
Galton, F. "Regression towards Mediocrity in Hereditary Stature." Journal of the Anthropological Institute 15 (1886): 246–263 — the paper that gave regression its name. PDF (galton.org) · DOI
Hanley, J. A. "'Transmuting' Women into Men: Galton's Family Data on Human Stature." The American Statistician 58, no. 3 (2004): 237–243 — the modern reanalysis that recovers Galton's moments and explains his mid-parent construction. DOI
Anscombe, F. J. "Graphs in Statistical Analysis." The American Statistician 27, no. 1 (1973): 17–21 — the quartet. DOI
Cook, R. D. "Detection of Influential Observation in Linear Regression." Technometrics 19, no. 1 (1977): 15–18 — Cook's distance. DOI
Hoerl, A. E.; Kennard, R. W. "Ridge Regression: Biased Estimation for Nonorthogonal Problems." Technometrics 12, no. 1 (1970): 55–67. DOI
Other historical sources
Turing, A. M. "Computing Machinery and Intelligence." Mind (1950).
Rosenblatt, F. "The Perceptron: A Probabilistic Model for Information Storage and Organization in the Brain." Psychological Review (1958).
Cortes, C.; Vapnik, V. "Support-Vector Networks." Machine Learning (1995).
Breiman, L. "Random Forests." Machine Learning (2001).
Friedman, J. H. "Greedy Function Approximation: A Gradient Boosting Machine." Annals of Statistics (2001).
Chen, T.; Guestrin, C. "XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System." KDD (2016).
Lundberg, S.; Lee, S.-I. "A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions." NeurIPS (2017) — SHAP.
Grootendorst, M. "BERTopic: Neural topic modeling with a class-based TF-IDF procedure." arXiv:2203.05794 (2022).
Software & documentation
scikit-learn — the reference library for classical ML in Python.